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04/08/2007 - St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Abdelkader's goal with 18.9 seconds left in regulation was the game-winner, as Michigan State claimed its third championship in school history with a 3-1 win over Boston College at Scottrade Center in St. Louis.
Tim Kennedy had a goal and an assist for the Spartans, who ended the season with five straight wins. Chris Mueller also tallied and Jeff Lerg stopped 28 shots.
"BC was coming to the net hard all game, but I knew if I made key saves, we'd have a chance, because we could not play their game," said Lerg. "In the end, we outplayed them."
Brian Boyle scored the lone goal for the Eagles, who saw their 13-game win streak snapped in cruel fashion. Cory Schneider stopped 26 shots in the loss, BC's second consecutive finals defeat.
Michigan State claimed the championship by scoring three times on a passive Boston College team in the third period.
Kennedy answered to tie the game for Michigan State on a power-play goal at 9:53, breaking away from two BC checkers and scoring low and inside the left post.
Then, with the clock ticking down towards overtime, Michigan State kept pressure on in the Eagles' defensive zone. Kennedy broke down the right side and clanged a shot off the right goalpost. He followed the puck behind the goal line and emerged from a scrum with the disc and fed in front to Abdelkader, who slipped the puck by Schneider for a 2-1 lead.
"It was an unbelievable play," Abdelkader said. "I saw the puck go behind the net, and wanted to find a spot in the slot. I got my stick on it, and it was fortunate that it went in."
Mueller added an empty-netter with 1.2 seconds to go and the bench erupted as the Spartans claimed their first title since 1986.
"We knew going into the game, they were a patient team,"said BC forward Joe Rooney. "They kept five guys low. We got our chances, but didn't get the bounces we needed. Got TO hand it to their goalie, he played well."
The Spartans, playing out of the CCHA, broke a streak of five consecutive champions from the WCHA stretching back to Boston College's win in 2001. The last school from the CCHA to win a title was Michigan, who took the crown in 1998 against Boston College.
Neither team scored in a spirited first period which saw BC outshoot Michigan State 13-6.
BC had a 5-on-3 advantage with five minutes played in the second, and capitalized while skating with one extra man as Nathan Gerbe won a battle along the boards and pushed the puck into the left circle. Brock Bradford stepped up and ripped a shot from the faceoff dot that hit Boyle's leg and sailed into the right corner of the net for a 1-0 lead at 6:50.
Michigan State went up by two men midway through the period, but BC held on without allowing a quality chance. Despite 12 shots in the second, the Spartans were still unable to solve Schneider.
That would set the stage for a stunning reversal in the final 20 minutes of the contest.
<< Willingham leads Marlins past Phillies
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Willingham went 3-for-4 with a homer, triple
and double and had four RBI as the Florida Marlins beat the Philadelphia
Phillies, 8-5 in the second game of a three-game set at Dolphins Stadium.
Marlins s
<< Webb, D-Backs pound Nationals
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandon Webb recovered from a shaky first
start by throwing seven solid innings, and Eric Byrnes finished 2-for-5 with a
solo home run and two runs batted in to power the Arizona Diamondbacks over
the Was
<< Senators pound Bruins, clinch fourth seed in East
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Spezza scored twice, Daniel Alfredsson and
Dany Heatley each had a three-point night with a goal and two assists, and the
Ottawa Senators beat up on the Boston Bruins, 6-3, to clinch home-ice
advanta
<< Smith helps Minnesota over St. Louis
St. Paul, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Niklas Backstrom made 24 saves as Minnesota
slammed St. Louis, 5-1, at Xcel Energy Center.
Wyatt Smith scored two goals and Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Branko Radivojevic and
Wes Walz each found the back of th
Carter, Kidd lead Nets past Wizards >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vince Carter recorded a triple-double
with 46 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists, as New Jersey collected a
thrilling, 120-114, overtime victory over Washington at the Continental
Airline
Terry, Mavs down Trail Blazers >>
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Terry scored 29 points, as the Southwest
Division-champion Dallas Mavericks righted the ship after having hit a slight
snag with an 86-74 win over the Portland Trail Blazers in the opener of a
short t
Preds down Avs; Colorado's playoff hopes dashed >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - J.P. Dumont scored twice to help the Nashville
Predators close out their regular season with a 4-2 win over Colorado at Pepsi
Center.
David Legwand and Paul Kariya each had a goal for the Predators (51-23-8),
Sosa hits first HR as Rangers down Red Sox >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sammy Sosa went 2-for-5 and hit his first
home run of the season, as Texas dumped Boston, 8-4, in the middle contest of
a three-game set.
Sosa's homer was his first since the 2005 campaign when he was a
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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