England has more to worry about then just Green

Soccer Betting Lines

06/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's safe to say that the English tabloids will come up with all kinds of clever headlines to describe the horrendous goal that Robert Green conceded in the Three Lion's 1-1 draw with the United States on Saturday to open the team's 2010 World Cup.

And while the enduring image of this match will be of a horrified Green desperately scrambling in vain to keep out Clint Dempsey's low shot, which slipped between his hands and trickled over the goal line, English fans have more to worry about than just their goalkeeping situation.

It's safe to say that Green will probably not take up the same position between the posts when England faces Algeria on June 18 in its next match, with either David James or Joe Hart manning that post.

James is the most experienced of the three, but at 39-years-of-age its fair to question if he still has it, while Hart had the best season of the three for Birmingham but is short on experience at just 23.

The goalkeeping situation was one of the big questions prior to the tournament, but there were a few other unsettling things that England manager Fabio Capello must work out.

The Italian is the highest-paid manager in the tournament and he will have to earn every penny if he is to take England as far as expected in this summer's competition.

Rio Ferdinand was given the captain's armband prior to the tournament before he suffered a knee injury that ruled him out. This left the injury-prone Ledley King to fill in for the Manchester United man, but he not-so- surprisingly lasted just one half before being replaced by Jamie Carragher, seemingly because of another injury.

Not only is Capello operating with a thin back line, but one that is also fairly slow.

American striker Jozy Altidore exploited this midway through the second half when he ran right by Carragher on the left wing and nearly bagged the winning goal, with Green tipping Altidore's shot onto the post.

If King is again battling injury problems it leaves only Carragher, Matthew Upson and the uncapped Michael Dawson as options in central defense to pair with John Terry.

There were a few bright spots in the England midfield as Steven Gerrard scored the team's lone goal and provided a number of dangerous crosses from the wings, while Aaron Lennon's pace proved troublesome on the right side.

But once again Frank Lampard struggled to make an impact, which has become a consistent theme for the talented Chelsea man.

It was hard to determine whether or not Wayne Rooney was on the field until the final 20 minutes, and he only made an impact when he began to drop further into the midfield to gain possession after failing to get decent service.

Gerrard's goal came just four minutes into the match and it looked like England would coast to victory from there, but instead the Americans worked their way back into the game and came within inches of taking the lead in the second half.

England put together good spells of play when they moved the ball along the ground and got it wide in space, but toward the end of the game they lacked creativity and got caught up in knocking long balls toward the head of substitute Peter Crouch instead of working it through the midfield.

The United States is no longer a lightweight in the world of soccer, but this was not a European heavyweight like Germany or Italy that gave England such a tough time.

We have heard so much about the famous 1950 meeting between these two teams when the USA stunned England, 1-0.

And while that result was an embarrassment for the British and they will now have to live with failing to beat the Yanks for a second time in the World Cup, there are clearly more important things to worry about.

A draw with the USA should be treated like losing to your little brother in a game of backyard basketball, its annoying but not the end of the world.

What will be treated like a tragedy, however, will be if England fails to advance beyond the quarterfinals for the fourth successive World Cup.

And based on what we saw on Saturday, there is a lot of work to be done in order to avoid another crisis.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.